Padel Club Feasibility: 6 Numbers to Check Before You Invest
Passion opens padel clubs. Numbers keep them open. Long before the first logo, render or grand opening, a handful of figures decide whether a project is viable at all — and skipping this step is the single most expensive mistake we see founders make.
Feasibility is not about killing dreams; it is about funding the right ones with confidence. Here are the six numbers we pressure-test on every project, and exactly why each one matters.
1. Catchment population
Count the residents within a 20-minute drive of the site. As a rule of thumb, a healthy single club needs a base of roughly 40,000–60,000 people in that radius, and more where competitors already operate nearby.
Then refine it. Padel skews toward active adults aged 20–50, so a young, sporty catchment of 40,000 can outperform an older one of 80,000. Population is the start of the analysis, never the whole of it.
2. Cost per court, all-in
This is land or rent, structure, the courts themselves, lighting, flooring, drainage and permits — divided by the number of courts. Founders who quote only the price of the panels routinely under-budget by 30–40%.
Knowing your true, all-in cost per court is the foundation every other projection rests on. Get it wrong and the entire plan becomes fiction, however elegant the spreadsheet looks.
3. Target occupancy
Sustainable clubs run at 45–60% average court occupancy across the full week — quiet mornings included, not just the Friday-night peak founders love to quote.
Model your break-even at a deliberately conservative 40%. If the plan only works above 65%, it is too fragile to fund and one slow season away from trouble.
4. Revenue per court-hour, and 5. Fixed monthly burn
Blend peak and off-peak prices into one realistic figure, multiply by open hours and occupancy, and you have your true top line. Then set it against fixed burn — rent, staff, utilities, software, insurance, maintenance — which arrives whether courts are full or empty.
The test is simple but ruthless: if realistic off-peak revenue cannot cover fixed costs, the concept needs rethinking before launch, not after the first quiet winter.
6. Payback period
Divide total investment by expected annual net profit. For padel, investors and banks look for payback inside four to six years; beyond eight, the risk rarely justifies the capital.
Run all six together and the picture becomes honest — bankable, even.
- Catchment population (40k–60k+ in 20 min)
- All-in cost per court
- Blended occupancy, break-even at 40%
- Revenue per court-hour
- Fixed monthly burn
- Payback inside 4–6 years
This is precisely what our Market Scan and BizPlan 5Y deliver: feasibility you can put in front of an investor and defend line by line.
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